Minnesota Transportation Bill Override: It Was Complicated

Category: Transportation

by Dave Mindeman

Well, the Senate followed the House override with a 47-20 Senate override and the transportation bill is law.

The political fallout from all this will have broad ramifications. There are many players and much fallout:

Tim Pawlenty: Although this is technically a defeat for the Governor, it also gets him off the hook. Make no mistake, there is a real transportation problem....and Governor Pawlenty had painted himself into a corner by eliminating any taxation as a remedy. He had exhausted the money shifts and realistically, any more borrowing for infrastructure was just not feasible.... although he still proposed it. His "no tax" image is still intact -- he certainly "can't be held responsible" for those steamrolling Democrats. But his arm twisting on the House Republicans appeared a little half-hearted....and the Washington Governor's conference was a good excuse to be "out of town".

The Republican Six: Conservative activists will have the six Republicans, that voted for the override, labeled with a big red bullseye. Rep. Erhardt already has a primary challenger. Reps. Tingelstad and Abeler probably will each get one too. Rep. Peterson is from Bloomington...and the first ring suburb will stand to benefit from finally working on those major highway bottlenecks. Nothing brewing yet on Hamilton and Heidgerken. Really, this was a courageous vote for these people. They knew going in, that the pressure would be enormous, but they are also experienced legislators that knew where it was all headed. They were "representing" their districts in every good sense of the word.

Speaker Kelliher and Leader Pogemiller: They obviously did learn something from last session. This time the "timing" of the override was brilliant. Moving quickly before the emphasis will shift to the deficit and with Pawlenty in Washington basking in VP media, the immediate vote was wise strategy. Bringing the Chamber of Commerce on board was also an excellent negotiating tool. Holding those tenuous votes together proves that Speaker Kelliher has the political instincts to be effective. Sen. Pogemiller didn't have as difficult a job....but the votes in the Senate were "rock solid" as promised.

The Freshman Democrats: Lost in the hoopla is the risk that is being taken by the freshman House Democrats. A lot of the Freshman come from Districts where votes were close. Any kind of tax increase is sure to be an issue in November, so their fate may well depend on how the rest of this session goes. The Democrats will have to find a way to balance a budget in deficit without furthur tax increases.....a daunting task that is growing as we speak.

Chamber of Commerce: It may take a while to figure this out, but at first appearance, it seems that the Chamber's clout with the Republicans may be waning. The House DFL leadership went with the Chamber compromise on the Metro Tax, assuming the Chamber could deliver some votes in the GOP caucus, but the effect on GOP legislators barely registered. It appeared that not a single new GOP legislator moved toward a Yes vote after the Chamber endorsed the compromise. Maybe it helped to solidify the vote of the six who did, but at first glance, it doesn't appear so.

State Republican Party: One of the conservative bloggers revealed the efforts of the State party to fight the override...and it was extensive. They claim to have made over 15,000 calls to constituents in close districts. They spent money on a radio ad campaign. They were agressive in the media. They even conducted special polling. And finally, they even targeted their own legislators at county conventions. All of it with little effect. You have to wonder if this was really a wise use of limited resources. The party conservative base would have been angry if it hadn't been done, but would this money have been spent more wisely in November? I guess that is their call.

Taxpayer's League: The Taxpayers League gets a lot of mileage with their negative message. You can get a lot of people to say they don't want a tax increase.... as long as you don't give them any other information. It has worked for most of this decade, but legislators have to fix things, and just saying "no" can only work so long. Policy people have to make decisions and they base them on tangible things. The State needs infrastructure... the State has to pay for it. Phil Krinkie's "just say no" rhetoric doesn't address any of that. They suffered a setback this time, but they will be back for more in November.... so don't count them out of the mix just yet.

This was a gigantic shift in policy for this state. Some of the dynamics have changed forever.... some of them will continue. But at least Minnesota's state transportation can now look to a "post-override" era.