Posted: 08/18/08 04:49
by Dave Mindeman
More polling data on the US Senate race. This time its the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. Last month Coleman had a 52-39% lead. This time the data has a 46-39% lead.
Some important points to ponder here:
1) Franken has to shore up his base, but they should be he most persuadable voters. This survey shows support in the mid-70s for Franken among Democrats. That will most likely increase.
2) Coleman still has a lead among women voters at 42-39, but Coleman's support is dropping here as well. Franken should end up winning women voters by the election.
3) The poll shows a Coleman lead among independents of 49-30. That, too, is probably as big a difference as we will see moving forward. Franken will get higher than 30% and with Barkley in the race, I can't see Coleman getting 49%.
The movement is clearly toward Franken and the numbers would seem to indicate that this trend should continue.
Coleman will try to keep the spin working in his favor and Franken obviously has more work to do, but the trendlines are working against Coleman right now.
The poll also took a look at a Coleman- Lord Faris matchup. She gets hammered 45-27. What was the case she was making again?
