Posted: 06/02/09 14:31, Edited: 06/03/09 08:42
by Dave Mindeman
In light of Governor Pawlenty's announcement, the DFL line for 2010 Governor takes on a new sense of urgency. I put together a GOP line a couple of days ago (which will begin to morph over the next weeks), so now I am going to put together my thoughts on the Democratic line. I am going to include some names that have not announced yet, because I think that will soon change.
Here we go:
10. Rep. Paul Thissen -- Paul Thissen was one of the first to get in and when the heavyweights join the fray, I think he will be one of the first to leave as well. He hasn't been able to project a media presence and as you peruse this list, I am not certain that DFL legislators are going to fair well....at least for now. The 2010 session will be critical and unwieldy for the legislators. They need to get something done but everybody will have agendas as well.
9. Former State Sen. Steve Kelley -- For the time being, Kelley is a lower tier candidate...but one advantage he has is that he was not part of the budget fiasco. As a policy wonk, Kelley can hold his own with anybody. But his media profile is very low. His style is not exciting. And his money raising capability is not promising. Not the requirements necessary to forge ahead of a crowded field.
8. Senator Tom Bakk -- I don't look for Bakk to get much traction either. He had a great forum as chair of the Senate tax committee, but his work there was underwhelming. Most of the committees ideas went out the window and his committee was overshadowed by the House side. Bakk will probably maintain regional support but he will, at best, be a bargainer, not a player.
7. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner -- Gaertner has been in the announced field for awhile but her profile is still pretty low. She has been making the outstate appearances and getting good marks for that; however she is still dogged by the RNC issues and a lack of legislative or executive experience. A lot of people have gotten burned by underestimating her and the fact that she may end up as the only woman in the field are net positives.
6. Rep. Joe Atkins -- Atkins is an ambitious character and has a following in the south suburbs. He also is accepted by the business community and knows how to talk to their issues. That could be an important attribute for 2010. I would imagine that Atkins will try to portray himself as a moderate which the GOP candidates will dispute. However, it will be worth a try for him to separate himself from the field...even if only slightly.
5. Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher -- She is unannounced as a candidate and she could very well stay unannounced. Her star fizzled when she got outmaneuvered by Pawlenty's budget tactics. She is a much wiser legislator now and maybe that is where she should stay. We will need an experienced speaker moving forward and she has shown an ability to keep the troops together. But her skills would be wasted on a gubernatorial run. Please, Speaker Kelliher....stay put.
4. Matt Entenza -- I would imagine that Entenza will really ramp up his profile now that Pawlenty is moving on. His deep pockets will make him a major player in this race, but he will have some trust issues with activists. He has a "I'll break the rules if I have to" personna and his feud with Mike Hatch is probably not over. Still, he can soften his image over time with plenty of media; so, for now, he will be a top tier candidate.
3. Mark Dayton -- Mark has the name recognition that is worth money in the bank. But he still has some issues that will dog his campaign. Republicans will label him as weak on law enforcement and a lightweight on policy. His campaign will depend on how he responds to the attacks. Mark has a wealth of experience to fall back on and he has been through state wide campaigns before. Of the announced candidates, he has an advantage, but he will have more competition now.
2. Mayor Chris Coleman -- Coleman gets good marks for taking on Pawlenty directly over the LGA cuts. However, it remains to be seen as to how much of the RNC flak will stick to the St. Paul mayor. Most of the mud has settled on Sheriff Fletcher and County Attorney Gaertner for now, but if the issue hangs around long enough, questions will head in Coleman's directions as well. He has staffed up and looks ready to go. I think he is in for sure.
1. Mayor R.T. Rybak -- With Pawlenty's announcement, this opportunity for Rybak will be too big to pass up. An open Governor seat has the popular mayor salivating. R.T. already has been heavy on the press releases lately -- no accident there. One big advantage for Rybak is the Obama connection. As an early supporter of the President, Rybak has some favors he can call in. During the 2010 elections that will be a huge advantage. He will probably have to stay coy for awhile as he moves into his mayoral re-election -- but that can give him a nice issue platform as well. I say he is running and he will be the favorite.
There you have the opening line. This will certainly fluctuate over the next several months. A lot of the political maneuvering will be internal, behind the scenes stuff. But, make no mistake, this will be the biggest DFL opportunity in decades.
For once, ladies and gentleman, let's not blow it.
