Bachmann: Waiting for the "Tug", or a Sign

Wow. That was quite the analysis. that's going to take awhile to digest...but sounds like you have your voters figured out.
 

Bachmann is all about the media attention ... like the girl in high school that was more interested in being asked to go to the prom than actually going.

There those outside the “Bachmann mind meld” that cannot understand how anyone could support her… and they are rejecting reality. Bachmann has “fanatic” supporters and she knows how to make the election system work (pack the caucus leading to the endorsing convention). Don’t deny that she could easily win the endorsement and then the only question is whether there was another “Arne Carlson-type” that in the primary that could get enough Independent and non-hardcore MN-GOP support to defeat her -- not likely.



Up next would be the General Election and she definitely has a pathway to victory --- even without a Obama failure.

First, without a Presidential or Senatorial contest in 2010, the Governor’s race will be the high profile contest … supplemented by the Secretary of State’s and AG races. So the MN-GOP has three contests that they want. Turnout will be the key … and historically it is low in these types of years. Minnesota’s eight Congressional districts will also be on the ballot, but it’s the Republicans that are helped there also. The five Congressional Democrats should have token resistance and easy victories. MN-GOPers will want to keep the Bachmann / Kline / Paulson seats and will be out in force. In fact, Peterson and Walz may get plenty of cross-over Republican votes, but those voters will vote Republican at the top of the ballot.

Consider that 63,209 McCain voters failed to vote for Coleman tells you that a RINO Republican will lose support when the Independence Party offers an alternative to the DFL candidate. Bachmann knows that the IP helps her and she will not attempt to attract moderates … she will want to maintain hardcore conservatives. Will Palin appear at a Bachmann campaign event (YES) but would Palin appear at a Siefert event (I am doubtful) ?

It’s the IP presence that once again will determine the next governor. Nobody may get a majority but Bachmann can win even though she gets in the low 40% range.



All that stated and considering your assessment that Bachmann wants a White House position, I don’t see the Governorship in her future. If she is enjoying her Washington gig with the TV appearances and private fundraising luncheons, why would she want to give that up for real work ? After redistricting in 2012, she may have a different shape to her district … which is just the incentive that she needs to move up to challenge Senator Klobuchar’s re-election.



Now, if you are a Democrat, the best hope may be Bachmann as the nominee. Once again, consider the overall low turnout and the races that matter, the DFL has problems. Consider a ticket with Siefert and Brod ... focusing on NoNewTaxes and being the "voice of reason" against a legislature that is dominated by DFLers ... how will that play with the NRA working folks that supported Peterson and Walz ? IF Bachmann is the nominee, then "reason" will make those voters consider the DFL nominee in a different light.