Posted: 07/05/09 13:48
by Dave Mindeman
OK-- might as well get everybody mad and rank the Dems as well. Again, the field breaks down into Endorsement and Primary...
Endorsement Field
10. State Sen. John Marty/Rep. Tom Rukavina -- Marty makes the list because he has been through this before, but as much as I like Sen. Marty, I just don't see this in the cards for him. I put Rukavina with him because if he decided to run, I think he would move right onto the list.
9. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner -- Unless she comes up with a spectacular surprise in fundraising, Gaertner's candidacy isn't going anywhere.
8. Rep. Paul Thissen -- Thissen is networking better than I expected and has an eager (if small) following. His potential is growing.
7. Steve Kelley -- How far can wonkishness get you? Mr. Kelley will find that out for us.
6. State Sen. Tom Bakk -- Still looks regional and that could get split if Rukavina gets in. Needs big fundraising numbers to bring any spark.
5. St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman -- Although he has a top tier staff, there isn't much activity outside of St. Paul. City elections will delay the run.
4. Mark Dayton -- Mark is still in top tier but may have a tough time getting delegate support.
3. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak -- Still has Obama connection and metro strength. But, like Coleman, city elections delays his big move.
2. Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher -- She is looking more like a candidate. She moves up because she may be the one that the women's groups coalesce around, as Gaertner's star fades.
1. Matt Entenza -- The greenbacks are still talking here and if Entenza can convince the delegates that he is simply the only one who finance a winning campaign, he'll get the nod.
Primary Field
Right now, I see 4 candidates that could carry over into a primary. And again, all this can change as fundraising numbers raise the stakes.....
4. MAK -- Kelliher could certainly move into September, but she has a lot to prove on the money side. Still with strong support from women's groups that can be overcome.
3. Mark Dayton -- Mark has proven that he can move into a primary battle and then still win the general election. That was how he became US Senator. Still, he will be dogged by baggage that can be exploited.
2. Matt Entenza -- Entenza also has baggage but the cash flow can overcome a lot. A strong identity campaign can reshape his image.
1. R.T. Rybak -- I know this is totally counterintuitive. How can a city mayor be the favorite in a statewide primary? Well, Rybak has a gift for campaigning that should play well everywhere. In fact, Rybak would probably do better if he participates in a primary because the exposure will improve his general election possibilities. He can raise money and has the Obama network. I think that's the kind of political mix that can win.
Another large field with political egos popping up all over.
Continue to stay tuned....
