Posted: 07/27/09 20:28
by Dave Mindeman
KSTP has a report out, citing some of their own Republican sources, (and Stanley Hubbard's station probably has plenty), that Norm Coleman "has been privately telling friends and political colleagues that he will not run for Governor..."
Although I wouldn't be totally convinced of that, it does seem to indicate that he isn't going to enter the race anytime soon -- even if he does change his mind, it will be quite a bit later before any announcement is contemplated.
That puts the MN Republicans in a situation of diminishing resources. Three top tier candidates have shown little desire to carry the GOP standard -- Brian Sullivan could have financed a good campaign; Jim Ramstad would have broadened the GOP vote; and now Norm Coleman could have given them a seasoned and viable statewide name.
So what's left?
Mary Lahammer, from TPT's Almanac, notes on her blog that after taping the Almanac conversation on the "political couch" the panel kept talking and left some of their impressions:
Rep. Marty Seifert seems to be the clear favorite with his fundraising, staff and legwork to back up a serious run. Seifert also tells me he will not take any lobbyist contributions which could play especially well in a general election, like Jesse Ventura and Paul Wellstone. Panelists like a lot of the Republican lawmakers making up what seems to be the second tier of candidates, but agree it's hard for any of them to break out. Former State Auditor Pat Anderson could also be a factor with her libertarian followers, but one added those folks are only about 20% of the delegates. And if gender becomes a big factor, such as Kelliher becoming a clear favorite on the DFL side, it could help GOPer Anderson.
So where does that put us on the Republican side. Well, for one thing, it probably makes it less likely that there will be a primary race for the GOP. The scramble for money will be tough with such a big field and there is little evidence that any of the remaining candidates can pull off a long primary campaign.
It also seems to make Marty Seifert the clear favorite to get the endorsement -- he has the credentials to actively court the big donors and if Coleman is not in the picture, more will open up looking for a bandwagon to jump on.
Updated List:
10. Charlie Weaver (formerly #9)-- Although a good friend of Pawlenty, Weaver still hasn't made any public overtures towards a candidacy. He still is hovering in the "interested" category...he needs some kind of visibility to stay on the list at all.
9. Mike Jungbauer (previously not rated) -- newcomer to the announced field and has registered with campaign finance. Why is he running?
Jungbauer, an ordained minister, said although he feels a calling from God to seek higher office, it’s certainly no guarantee that he’ll achieve it. -- Hometown Source
Oh boy.
8. David Hann (formerly #7) -- not much progress here either, although he has formerly registered with Campaign Finance. So he should be raising money. Name recognition is pretty low.
7. Geoff Michel (formerly #6) -- Michel has to start making a serious move if he wants to be a player. He has made no formal announcement and according to PIM, hasn't filed with CFB. Still time but everybody else is doing something.
6. Paul Kohls (formerly #10) -- Kohls seems to be a hard campaigner and a straight talker (or crazy talker depending on your point of view). He is registered with CFB and seems to be in it to win it. You will hear the words "limited government" a lot from this "fighter pilot" wannabe.
5. Laura Brod (formerly #2) -- Laura has "suspended" her exploration for Governor because of health issues. But the wording did not rule out a return and until that happens, she stays on the list...and would move up again with a return to viability.
4. Tom Emmer (previously not rated) -- Emmer has a better following than I expected and is often rated one of the top 3 or 4 names. Minnpost describes him as having a "hockey mentality" -- that could mean toughness or a few too many head knocks into the boards -- who knows. Certainly not the wallflower type, Emmer could cause some nastiness in the campaign.
3. Steve Sviggum (formerly #5) -- Sviggum has had a setback in his campaign because of his position as Labor Commissioner. His duties cover some Federal aspects and it has been ruled that he is covered by the Hatch Act (forbids Federal employees from partisan political involvement). But he stays high on the list because.....well, a lot of the contenders are gone! If Sviggum resigns his post and resumes a campaign, he'll likely be a top tier candidate.
2. Pat Anderson (formerly #3) -- The comment above about Anderson being a factor because of her libertarian followers is true. However, I suspect that when the delegate selection process starts that the 20% figure will end up being low. The Paulites had a taste of how to work the system in 2008....and it was a taste that thorougly wetted their appetite. They will be out in force for 2010. But I'm not totally convinced that former auditor Anderson will garner a full complement of that faction. If she can, she will be a factor for endorsement.
1. Marty Seifert (formerly #1) -- Marty Seifert continues to hold the top position and its really not close right now. He is always the first one mentioned as top contender and his position as minority leader gave him access to a lot of top name Republicans. He is "cashing in the chips", as it were. Mr. Malaprop could still stumble with his golden tongue, but he looks like the guy right now.
The Democrats have the deeper bench currently, but the GOP will probably have their nomination settled early with an early convention. Then it will be a question of a) will the Democrats dominate the news with a primary battle and the GOP endorsee is left out of the news cycle or b) will the Democrats have a nasty fight which the Republican can exploit.
That is a toss-up right now.
