Posted: 08/04/09 17:21, Edited: 08/05/09 15:29
by Dave Mindeman
Today's announcement by El Tinklenberg, stating he is dropping out of the 6th District Congressional race, will be a major topic of discussion over the next few days. It comes as a surprise to many and I'm sure it will be discussed in lengthy detail.
But I am going to take us off on a very different tangent.
The 6th District has always been a puzzling place for the Democratic Party. They never seem to come up with the right mix of message and candidate. But if I were a political strategist, I would be looking at the Independence Party and saying -- "C'mon people, you are missing your opportunity."
From its earliest days, the Independence Party has floundered around after Ventura's stunning success in 1998. It's the age old case of a lottery win -- they want to revisit the magic without doing the hard slog in the trenches.
The 6th District has always been sitting there as their big opportunity. Let's go back to 1998 and look at some numbers:
State Wide Vote for Governor:
Ventura-----37.0%
Coleman---34.3%
Humphrey--28.1%
Now, the 6th District, as it is now, did not exist in 1998, but let's look at the 6 counties that make up the district now.... Anoka, Benton, Sherburne, Stearns, Washington, and Wright. Now, granted, counties are broken up among the districts but for this quick examination, let's use the total county vote.
Six County Vote for Governor:
Ventura --- 46.48%
Coleman -- 33.11%
Humphrey - 20.12%
Notice that Coleman stays relatively the same but Ventura has a 9% increase, while Humphrey drops 8%. In fact, if you eliminate these 6 counties for the total vote, Ventura only squeaks out a win with a margin of less than 10,000 votes over Coleman.
The Independence Party's reaction to their success was to keep trying to duplicate it.... always running Congressional and Statewide candidates, but never recruiting or supporting legislative races.
That was a lost opportunity.
Even if you look at things as they stand now, Democrats continue to have extreme difficulty making inroads in this area. While on the other hand, marginal and unknown Independence candidates can capture at least 10% of the Congressional vote with virtually no campaign at all.
Tinklenberg's outreach to the Independence Party in 2008 was a great idea but he couldn't translate it into solid support. He was undecided if he should move to the right or the left to capture that support.
Maureen Reed's move to the DFL is another attempt to merge the two close, but still different, party ideologies. But with Tarryl Clark entering the mix and Tinklenburg's exit, Reed's quest just got very difficult if not impossible.
The Independence Party has some strong base connections in the 6th and as long as that is there, the GOP's strategy of divide and conquer will probably continue -- even with Michele Bachmann as the standard bearer.
Frankly, the Independence Party would be better served to start fresh in the 6th with a real attempt at serious party building. If Tarryl Clark is indeed the standard bearer for the DFL in the Congressional race, then why not bring Maureen Reed back in the fold and endorse her to run for Clark's Senate seat. Or why have they not looked to Tinklenberg as a legislative recruit or even a Constitutional office candidate.
You have to develop candidates and actually win something to be taken seriously.
Why they haven't done that is still a mystery to me.
The IP does recognize the importance of returning IP candidates to the Minnesota Legislature. We do see the long term value of building candidates and the party in order to bring stronger, more balanced representation to the citizens of Minnesota. Watch for tri-partisanship to take seed in Saint Paul in 2010, and spread, slowly, but surely, for years to come.
Mark Jenkins