Posted: 08/20/09 06:07
by Dave Mindeman
After several posts on the 6th District, let's review the rest of the MN Congressional delegation as well. In 2010, there will be a very different climate than in 2008 -- and it won't be as positive for Democrats. I still believe that the DFL lost a huge opportunity to dominate the state's Congressional delegation in'08. The 6th District Bachmann meltdown was a golden opportunity, but that chance was lost and may not happen again. The 3rd District had some strategy mistakes, but unlike the 6th, the possibilities still exist to get a DFL win here, as I will talk about in a moment.
First, let's review the current prospects for Minnesota's House incumbents:
1st District: Tim Walz is one election away from being an entrenched incumbent. And if Carol Molnau is the best the local GOP has to offer, it's a lock. Although Walz has a few too many "Blue Dog" tendencies for my progressive tastes, his political philosophy seems to fit the district well -- and his political instincts are amazing. Walz should have little trouble continuing to represent the 1st.
2nd District: We have to go the other way here as John Kline seems to be firmly encased in the 2nd District. It is a conservative leaning district represented by an ultra-conservative Congressman. And although Kline acts as a "blunt instrument" at times, he does fit the district philosophy. Unlike Walz, he has lousy political instincts but, up to this point, it hasn't mattered.
4th, 5th, and 8th Districts: These have been Democratic strongholds for some time and that will most likely continue. The incumbents have made no major mistakes and there is little major candidate opposition on the horizon. Keith Ellison can sometimes "tread on the edge" on occasion, but he also represents a district that finds that somewhat endearing. No changes for any of the three districts.
7th District: Despite all the state GOP rhetoric about Peterson, he isn't going anywhere. In fact, I would guess that the state DFL is hoping that the state GOP funnels a bunch of cash into the 7th -- it would be money well wasted.
6th District: As I have discussed previously, the 6th is a very tough district for a Democrat, but Michele Bachmann keeps it all in play. She always presents the possibility that she will defeat herself and keeping a strong Democratic opponent is important. In 2010, the candidates look strong, so that potential is covered. Then, again, there is always the chance that Bachmann will suddenly find a sense of normalcy and eliminate any Democratic hope......(naaaa, just kidding.)
A Discussion About the 3rd District
That brings us to the 3rd. In 2008, Ashwin Madia was a good candidate, he just made some strategic mistakes. Coming out of nowhere, he had to veer too far left to obtain the DFL endorsement and he did not have the resources to make the pivot back to the center for the general election. Paulsen had his own party nomination locked up early and had plenty of time to portray himself as the "centrist" candidate -- even though his 2 year record now clearly demonstrates he was much more conservative than he appeared. That could make him vulnerable in a district that seems to prefer middle ground.
The DFL has the right potential candidate for a 3rd District challenge. Terri Bonoff, who was defeated by Madia for endorsement, is still considering a race as MnIndy points out. Bonoff could argue that she lost the 2008 endorsement because she "wasn't liberal enough"....an interesting argument to take to the 3rd District voters that may be concerned about "conservative" Erik Paulsen.
The overall problem lies in this MnIndy observation:
Raising sufficient funds to mount a credible challenge to Paulsen will be difficult. With many Democratic incumbents facing tough reelection fights, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other national groups will likely pick their takeover targets sparingly.
With all the attention gravitating to the 6th District and the outspoken Bachmann, the 3rd may not get the proper attention. That would be unfortunate because the 3rd looks like it has the best potential for a Democratic pickup.
In a year where resources will be much scarcer, I hope cooler heads can look beyond the zany 6th and talk normal strategic politics for the 3rd.
Good take on the Districts.
The one thing the Democrats should have learned from 2004 through 2008 is that the Sixth is a Republican District … and every penny that is spent there is wasted.
Sadly, the one area of disappointment is that the Democrats have never taken the Second seriously with resources. If they had funded Sarvi and sent “names” to campaign with him, there could have been a change in 2008.
In 2010, the DCCC may have to focus more on retaining some of its seats than takeovers. Keeping entrenched incumbents will be more important after the census and districts change.
The best time to defeat an incumbent (assuming that a scandal does not happen) is during the Congressman’s first re-election contest. But there is another reason that Paulson should be the target … it’s the Governor’s race. Seats in the State Legislature will be contested, so the key is to minimize any cross-over votes (in other words, encourage voters not to “retain” the incumbent Paulsen while voting for DFLers in other contests.) Remember the District did vote for Obama and even the Star-Tribune wasn’t impressed enough endorse anyone in the District. Since being in Congress, what is his accomplishments … not making any headlines may be it … but people want a Representative that will hold Town Hall meetings and get their input … something Paulsen has failed to do.
The next Governor will be decided by how the Third District goes (or conversely, how strongly the Republicans dominate the Sixth District).
And one observation about the Seventh … do Republicans know that they would lose more by defeating Peterson than keeping him ? Blue Dog Peterson was the thorn in the climate change bill and has been the most fiscal conservative in the Minnesota delegation (yes, he voted against the first stimulus act when Bachmann and Kline approved Bush’s legislation.) So, if Republicans do defeat Peterson, the Ag Committee has a new chair … now do you think that the Republicans will also pick up another 40 seats to wrestle the chairmanship away ? No, if the MN-GOP is successful in unseating Peterson, it would be doubtful that Pelosi would pick another Blue Dog.