End of August Rankings: DFL Governor

Category: DFL Gov 2010

by Dave Mindeman
dmindeman06@yahoo.com

OK -- back to the lion's den and the end of the month rankings for the DFL Governor candidates. Ranking this large field is getting more difficult without some actual preference polling or public input. There are a number of variables which I'll discuss as we go along.

A couple of important notes. The DFL will be holding a September 15th straw poll (actually using ranked choice) at 3 different locations listed in the article. Although this is Rybak's home turf, the voting is open to anyone, so it may be a good indication of how well the candidates can mobilize supporters.

Secondly, mnpACT! continues its DFL Candidate for Governor series on Friday, September 11, (Open Circle Church in Burnsville) hosting John Marty and Paul Thissen. A good chance to get up close and personal with your questions.

Unlike the GOP, the DFL still has the likely potential that there will be a primary contest. So one of the things that will be watched closely is the financials. Candidates who can raise the money can gear up for a long primary contest. Those that can't come up with the greenbacks will probably have to pack it in if they can't get the convention endorsement.

Remember, this is just an opinion. If you have comments, please make them. If you want to pass along information that is pertinent to your particular candidate, my e-mail address is at the top. So, without furthur ado, the August rankings:

11. Tom Rukavina (formerly #10): Still finding his place in a crowded field. Guess we are all waiting for the patented Rukavinia sound bites to rise to the occasion and get him some press. They will come, I'm sure. Meanwhile he has to work his way up the ladder.

10. Susan Gaertner (formerly #7): Gaertner's message is fine and her stance on the issues have a broad DFL appeal, but she continues to be dogged by the RNC situation. Persistent protesters are following her everywhere -- even to Chicago. Fair or unfair, it is a distraction she doesn't need for a gubernatorial campaign.

9. Steve Kelley (formerly #11): Kelley moves up a couple of places. He has been working hard on grass roots development and also in alternative media. Still a ways to go, but his previous support from 2006 is still relevant. Money is a real key for him.

8. Tom Bakk (formerly #8): Bakk has been writing some good op-ed pieces and his focus on jobs is the right one, but as chair of the Senate Tax Committee, he is also going to have to have a good answer for increasing taxes. His committee proposed a bill that did just that and he will need to defend that as well as emphasize jobs. His message needs tweaking if it is to withstand election scrutiny. Treading water so far.

7. John Marty (formerly #9): Marty moves up a couple of places because he will attract a significant number of delegates with his strong single payer stand. He does not shy away from it and boldly defends it. Maybe that is a hard position to make for a general election, but it makes him a player for the convention. You have to admire his stance on principle...but is that going to win in November? -- its up to Marty to make that case.

6. Paul Thissen (formerly #6): Thissen is still doing the hard work that can give him an edge for the convention. He is making the appearances and doing the house parties. His strategy will probably have to concentrate on an endorsement. He doesn't yet have the name recognition to compete in a statewide primary without it.

5. Chris Coleman (formerly #5): Can't decide if Coleman is moving down or up -- so I'll keep him at #5. He's obviously interested in a governor run -- his beefed up staffing isn't needed for a mayoral re-election. But how he transitions from his current election to the next is tricky. Rybak is a little more open about it and he has the Draft RT group working outside his campaign. We'll know more soon.

4. Margaret Anderson Kelliher (formerly #4): She gets a little help from the GOP in her quest. They attack her with a billboard at the State Fair....nothing says fundraising, like a billboard slam. She still has some work to do and the 2010 session will make or break her candidacy. She will be the symbolic face of how the legislature fares in the mind of the public -- good or bad.

Still looking at the primary triumvarate.....

3. R.T. Rybak (formerly #3): The DraftRT group has a booth at the fair and are signing people up....that sure can't hurt a potential candidate for governor. The mayor has to continue to engage Pawlenty on issues at every opportunity and make some progress outstate. Its a challenge for a large city mayor, but Rybak seems to be working on it. He has to have a big showing at the straw poll on the 15th.

2. Mark Dayton (formerly #1): Dayton is still doing all the right things....making lots of grass roots connections and calling in markers from many years with the party. Still you have the feeling that he needs something else...that something is missing. He has been showing some more passion in his speeches and his issues are sharpening. He has made some bold pronouncements on raising taxes on the wealthy and regarding single payer health care. I would hope that he would also be ready to make those arguments in a general election as well.

1. Matt Entenza (formerly #2): I flipped Mark and Matt because of the Entenza additon of Dana Houle to his staff....and the excellent press he received during his southern Minnesota swing. Entenza's campaign staff is looking very strong and I would imagine his coffers are ready to do whatever is needed. Lois Quam has been more vocal of late on health care issues as well. Still there just seems to be that lack of passion in Matt -- almost robotic. A true policy wonk, he needs to get beyond that and speak to the heart of the average voter.

Most of this is, of course, a lot of speculation. The more telling items to watch will be financial reports and the polls that will start to pop up during the winter months.

Still, I don't see this field getting reduced for some time and frankly, that is good for policy debate. Take part in it.