Posted: Sunday, 20 September 2009 19:07, Edited: Sunday, 20 September 2009 21:34
by Dave Mindeman
One of the background questions that is lying in the shadows of the 2010 Governor's race is what effect the Independence Party will have on it.
I had a brief conversation with the Chair of the Party, Jack Uldrich at their booth at the state fair and he was very confident that they would have a candidate on the ballot in 2010. In fact, he indicated that two top name candidates are considering it right now -- although he was not at "liberty" to mention their names.
Obviously the Independence Party has managed to capture a pretty consistent, though often small, minority vote in most major campaigns. Dean Barkley's vote in 2008 had a big effect on the Senate race, ending with a minority vote win -- as it turned out -- for Al Franken. It depends on who you talk to as to whether he cost Coleman the election or prevented a more convincing win for Franken.
It is widely held that Peter Hutchinson gave Governor Pawlenty his re-election win in 2006; and again, depending on who you talk to, Michele Bachmann might not be holding court on her myriad of opinions without the Independence candidacy of Bob Anderson.
So, the effect that the Indpendence Party will have on 2010's Governor race will be correlated greatly to the actual person who occupies that space on the ballot. So, let's speculate on who that might be. The following is a list of potential candidates, counting down to the ones who would have the greatest effect.
The candidates listed are all potentially very good candidates....the real problem will be the lack of money that they will be forced to endure because of the Independence Party's lack of resources. Thus their rated effects on the governor's race is based on their individual ability to overcome this drawback, not on any perceived personal shortcomings.
8. Pam Ellison -- a former volunteer coordinator for Ventura, Ellison set up a candidacy for Governor in 2006, but lost to Peter Hutchinson. She has a firey style but the name recognition state wide is much too low. She has made no overtures about running and is currently a VP with LuckyBrand Jeans. If she ran, her effect on the race would be minimal.
7. Peter Hutchinson -- Although Hutchinson has made no indications of a run or any interest, I mention him because he is the type of candidate that the Republicans would like to see on the IP ballot. His ideas lean toward the liberal end but with an emphasis on fiscal responsibility. He seems to be fulfilling his goals as President of the Bush Foundation. If he ran, his effect would be high, but actual chance of running near zero.
6. Stephen Williams -- Might have enough influence within the party to garner reasonable support for endorsement. But his state wide credentials are low. His type of candidacy would bring it back to a two party race. Williams was actually the endorsed candidate for the Senate in 2008, but would up 3rd in the primary. If he ran, little effect on race.
5. Jim Moore -- Moore is actually a pretty engaging type of fellow and can articulate his ideas pretty well. He has been a previous chair of the Party and has a pretty good following within those confines. But again, name recognition is the big problem and a party with few financial resources needs that to begin with. If he ran, little effect on race.
4. Jack Ulrich -- He is the current chair of the Party and he is one of those "vision" guys. He can probably hold his own in a debate but most of the state will still be saying "Jack who?". Still he could probably get the IP backing if he wanted to and has done a pretty good job of keeping the party in play with limited resources. But, if he ran, probably very little effect on the race.
3. Dr. Maureen Reed -- She has been building a reputation on the Minnesota political scene. The fundraising numbers in her MN-06 Congressional quest put her on the map. But with the entrance of Tarryl Clark, he DFL endorsement hopes are pretty small. Now, if she changed course and sought the IP Governor endorsement, that might move her into a high profile race that could make use of that political capital. Her forray into the DFL has been cordial if not enthusiastic, so she might be capable of swinging some Democrats the IP way -- especially if the primary gets nasty. Depending on issue emphasis, she could have a very large effect on the race.
2. Dean Barkley -- The perceptions of Dean Barkley are somewhere between seasoned political veteran and Don Quixote. If he chooses to run for Governor, again, this might be his last race to be taken seriously. He managed to get a pretty darn good showing in the 2008 Senate race and although some may blame him for the long winded fiasco at the end, most people blame the nasty campaign on the two major parties -- which actually made Barkley's point. However, continuing to run campaign after campaign made lead to a candidate fatigue among the voters.... and Barkley is not a rich man by any means. He would have to think long and hard about doing this all again. But if he did, he would still have a big effect on the campaign.
1. Jim Ramstad -- I realize there is no indication that Jim Ramstad is even considering a run with the Independence Party, but the fit is too perfect not to speculate. Ramstad has financial donors in place. There is little chance he can gain the Republican Party endorsement. His political views have a solid middle of the road perception. And the IP would probably jump at the chance to support him. If Jim Ramstad is serious about running for Governor, the IP is the type of platform made for him. If he ran as the IP candidate, he might just squeak it out.
So, there you go....some more wild speculation for you to digest. The 2010 Governor's race has all the makings of a national attention head turner. We'll all be watching and focusing on every facet of it.
