Posted: 11/30/09 20:43
by Dave Mindeman
Note: Margaret Anderson Kelliher and R.T. Rybak will be joining mnpACT! on December 11th for our Governor Candidate Series. Instead of the short answer, 10 candidate forums we have seen, this is your chance for an in depth look at two of the top candidates for the DFL nomination. Details are on the side of the blog pages. Don't miss this opportunity!
It's the end of November and time for another look at the DFL Governor field. Little more movement this time....
10. Susan Gaertner (previously 10): The Ramsey County Attorney has not been able to find a breakout point for herself. The media attention has been lacking and she seems to be lagging behind Kelliher in support among women. Frankly she deserves better but it is difficult to gain any traction in a large field that shows no sign of any reduction.
9. Steve Kelley (previously 9): Kelley has a similar problem. He seems to be deep below the radar. Now, obviously, he has a loyal following from his last run, and that kind of experience can be a positive going into the caucuses. But can he beat expectations? A nice surprise in fundraising could go a long ways to reestablish his campaign -- just doesn't look like its happening.
8. John Marty (previously #6): Everybody talks about Marty's health care bill... at least when they are addressing a progressive crowd. Even Speaker Kelliher put in a good word about it, although JM had to point out that she was not on the sponsor list. Marty's ideas get usurped by the rest of the field to satisfy progressive leaning delegates, leaving John to wonder, "Where are these people when I need them?" It is hard to find a way for Marty to get a breakthrough boost.
7. Tom Rukavina (previously #8): Although "Refreshingly Honest" is a catchy campaign slogan, is what he's saying all that different from the rest of the candidates? There are some significant nuances, but Rukavina needs a bigger megaphone to get that message out. He has great passion and that is indeed a plus in a field that can lean to the boring side, but he needs to turn that passion into passionate support.
6. Tom Bakk (formerly #7): Frankly, Bakk has a pretty good working knowledge of how the state budget operates. And he knows where it needs to be fixed. He has ideas about how to get capital moving again to jump start the economy, but I haven't heard him get specific like that outside of some op-ed pieces. He could use a few condensed sound bites that would convey his broader message. That is a tough one, but that is how he could differentiate himself from the pack. Still he needs the big bucks to keep going and I don't hear much positive on that front.
5. Paul Thissen (formerly #5): Paul continues to work and work. Got a phone call from him on Sunday -- working the phones on Thanksgiving weekend. Wow. With the Nurses endorsement, he gets a lot of hard workers there as well. Thissen continues to exude an upbeat message that should keep him in the hunt. I still see him as one of the top 3 candidates to get the endorsement.
4. Matt Entenza (formerly #1): As the union endorsements started to go public, it was hard not to notice that Entenza's name was never called. Now certainly, an endorsement from a union is not a pre-requisite for becoming governor, but it makes it a lot easier on the DFL side of things. I'm also still trying to get a handle on why his wife, Lois Quam, has decide to join the campaign full time. Is it a sign that the campaign is lacking something?... or is it just a natural happenstance? In any event, the power couple seems to be doubling down on this campaign.
3. R.T. Rybak (formerly #3): Alright, Rybak is officially in the hunt and with his official entrance comes a lot of positives. Rybak is probably the best campaigner in the field, and anyone who has seen him in person is almost always impressed. I still have to be convinced that he is able to translate that into outstate support. I have also heard him say that he will abide by the endorsement. In his case, that might be a little bit premature,,, because if his finances are strong enough, he could certainly join a primary field if he doesn't get the endorsement. With a multiple candidate field, anything can happen.
2. Mark Dayton (formerly #4): Dayton's statewide name recognition is still translating into good polling. I thought that might diminish as we moved farther into this, but the numbers are still there. He should benefit from his past network and he still gets high marks in progressive and anti-war circles. It will be interesting to watch how he plays the convention. Will he go all out to compete for the endorsement or maybe pull back and save some capital for the inevitable primary campaign? Dayton has the option to play it either way.
1. Margaret Anderson Kelliher (formerly #2): With multiple union endorsements in hand, MAK is moving into a strong position for convention endorsement. Women's groups and Union support are golden and Kelliher is getting solid marks on those fronts. One more big endorsement by SEIU or Education MN and it could give her hard to beat momentum. Her biggest challenge going forward will be the legislative session. The success or failure of the 2010 version is squarely on her shoulders. Can she successfully challenge Pawlenty and push a Democratic agenda, via compromise or override? Or will she end up on the short end of more vetos? Her strength as a governor candidate is riding on the outcome.
OK -- 2 months to go to caucuses. Still no field reduction on the horizon. Everybody is in it to win it.
This is a high stakes race. Everybody needs to be informed, be involved, and make this the year of a Democratic Governor in Minnesota.
Sitting out here in the hinterlands where Broadband is only a dream, the viewpoint definitely affected by the news that is available.
First, let’s commend all the candidates who have been devoting so much time to meeting people at the various forums, etc. … not only do they get to hone their speeches but see our roads and hear about jobs (currently held and fear of losing).
That said, the advantage goes to those currently in the state legislature. MAK as House Speaker and Bakk as Chairman of the Senate Taxes Committee are in prime positions to do something early in the session. I see that they are reacting to the current situation with MAK’s Jobs Task Force and Bakk’s OpEd calling for a special session. This is good foundation.
On the politics side, as you said MAK continues to be well-received by some of the endorsing groups including the Minnesota Farmers Union (MFU) Political Action Committee straw poll. IMO that poll should carry more weight than a telephone survey by a national polling company. Kelliher received 36 percent in the poll, Dayton came in second among DFLers with 20 percent, Rybak received 12 percent and Rukavina received 11 percent. Kelliher doing well is not a surprise considering her family farm background and Dayton is a known name, but Rybak is a surprise. That says rural voters know who the Minneapolis Mayor is and like what he stands for. Conversely, the Rasmussen poll that had Dayton and Rybak tied at 30% with MAK at 8% and Entenza at 6% tells an entirely different story. That poll was nothing more than a poll for name recognition … it named four candidates and asked for a preference … the fact that 20% were undecided suggests that the campaign has a long way to go … and that shifting of preferences is quite likely. (Remember on the MN-GOP side it had Norm Coleman getting 50% with Marty Seifert at only 11% … that’s proof that was nothing more than a telephone survey and not a canvassing of caucus participants.)
Another aspect that should be considered is the number of endorsements from current and former elected DFLers. MAK (28 House 3 Senate broadly spread around the state) and Bakk (2 House 11 Senate broadly spread around the state) continue to do well while Dayton has none and Entenza has seven current House members mostly from St. Paul. If part of the consideration is governance, the allegiances seem to be with the current leadership and not “yesterday’s leaders.”
At this stage, the vector seems to be going in MAK, Bakk and Rybak’s direction … IMO, any of these candidates could connect with the independent voters … and it will be the independent voters that determine the next governor.
I suspect that you will be updating your ranking for the MN-GOP field, but the critical question is the Independence Party. The IP offers that safe ground for independent voters who are disappointed with DFL and MN-GOP nominees … to win, the nominee must convince those independent voters that their vote matters.