Caucus Winners and Losers - Spinning Begins Now

A couple of thoughts.

I warned that the SD-26 Special Election of Mike Parry as a “canary in the coal mine” prelude for the future… the concern was not that the MN-GOP would retain the seat but instead that the Parry philosophy of “15% cut in state spending” compounded with MDE attacks on Jason Engbrecht would encourage the TeaParty grassroots activists to trudge through the cold to make their voices heard. In the end, it was clear that some DFL-leaning precincts underperformed in terms of turn out, while more conservative areas had higher turn out. Apathy is a central factor when only a minority of voters participates.

Fast forward to the caucuses.
Look at the turnout numbers … yes statewide, the DFL had more people attend than the MN-GOP but I hear a chorus of canaries.

In the 2008 First District Congressional Election, Tim Walz won every county. One would think that would encourage people to attend the caucus.
Let’s look at some of the counties in and around the First District :
Blue Earth (Mankato) Democrats 206; Republicans 252
Brown (New Ulm) Democrats 73; Republicans 143
Faribault Democrats 28; Republicans 52
LeSueur Democrats 76; Republicans 139
Martin (Fairmont) Democrats 33; Republicans 133
Nicollet (St. Peter) Democrats 118; Republicans 144
Olmsted (Rochester) Democrats 175; Republicans 424
Steele (Owatonna) Democrats 87; Republicans 108
Waseca Democrats 40; Republicans 72
In every one of these counties, the Republicans drew bigger crowds … and the DFL was helped in Brown County when a teacher offered students extra credit to attend the caucuses. {Sidenote : I love the resolution the kids offered; “State government must not take public school funds to balance the state budget because schools need the money for expenses and reserves.”)

And as seen by Roy Srp’s performance in the SD-26 Special Election, the IP can have an impact. Srp took a portion of the vote that Engbrecht would have had to capture in order to win the election … Srp won the City of Waseca’s precincts pushing Engbrecht to a distant third.
From Districts 23, 24 and 21B (in the First Congressional District which features Mankato) drew 66 Independence Party members to their caucus — more than established DFL party in a number of counties … repeating Faribault had 28 DFLers, Martin had 33, Waseca had 40, and barely beat Brown which had 73, LeSueur at 76 and Steele at 87.
And, the Indpendence Party has an ongoing online caucus for anyone that did not attend in person.

The MN-GOP maybe exhibiting more enthuasism … somwhat because of pent-up anger finally being released now they no longer have to protect/defend/accept Bush policies … but also because they have many challengers compeating for the state legislature (and against Tim Walz … I have lost track of the number but it might be up to six now.) Although they may be compeating against one within the party, in the end just like in SD-26 where Parry had a number of more qualified candidates being consider for endorsement, the MN-GOP will show up in November.
The DFL needs to put up a candidate that will not only appeal to natural DFL base but also to the independent voters.
The Parry victory was a lost opportunity for the DFL. Open seats don’t happen enough, and it is more a concern that someone with such hardcore beliefs will impede legislation from being enacted. Sadly, these legislature seats are perfect grooming positions for future Congressional candidates … Engbrecht could have been a great candidate against John Kline in a few years. Conversely, the TEAparty grassroots movement is putting their plan in action. The National Precinct Alliance mantra is this: take the precinct, take the state, take the party — and force it to nominate conservatives rather than people they see as liberals in Republican clothing. It worked for Bachmann. These precinct low-level positions come with the ability to vote for the party executives who endorse candidates, approve platforms and decide where the party spends money. National Precinct Alliance estimates that about 60 percent of the roughly 150,000 local Republican committee seats are vacant and can be filled by essentially showing up. That’s why when Rochester’s Olmstead County gets 424 participants, there should be concern. IMO, Rochester was a key factor in Pawlenty winning the governorship … and it will be a factor in 2010.

Second, the straw poll results are pretty meaningless.
Based on a number of reports - especially in the DFL caucuses - there were not sufficient number participants to fill all the slots for county conventions, the straw poll will not reflect who the delegates end up voting for. On the MN-GOP side, this could really help Tom Emmer. Marty Seifert seems to have gotten many of the “party regulars” in his pocket but Emmer seems to have more of the hardcore activists who may end up being a greater portion of the delegates at county-to-district-to-state endorsing convention.
On the DFL side, the overall impact of the Minneapolis precincts may have provided RT Rybak with his win. However that needs to be tempered by how the final delegates are selected to the State Convention … the straw poll may give Rybak a high tally in Mpls which will only generate a fixed number of delegates to the State Convention … but in the lesser attended counties who will get their share of delegates ? For example in New Ulm, the winner was “Undecided” followed by MAK and then Rybak … by the time the State Convention delegates are chosen, the few delegates from New Ulm will eventually be part of the 5 delegates from Brown County that endorse the final nominee … even though Rybak got 16% of the New Ulm straw poll vote, he may get all five state delegates or he may get none … or any number in between. It’s still anybody’s game.
I was struck by how well Tom Bakk performed in Mankato …. coming in second with 29 votes beating Rybak, undecided and all the others … MAK won the caucus with 65 but that is her “home” turf as the delegates will include a few that are pretty sure to hold with her through the convention since her siblings were elected as delegates … in the end, don’t be surprised if all 14 delegates from Blue Earth County end up in MAK’s pocket. Bakk may have picked up support since he spent some time in Mankato … pressing the flesh is still the best way to get votes.

Now that the straw poll results are being finalized, the process moves forward.

For the delegates to the county conventions, it’s time to look not only at the candidate that you prefer but also at the others with only one question in mind …who can win in November.
For the candidates, it might be appropriate to re-evaluate their options. If they cannot see a path to the endorsement, would it be time to raise the argument that the caucus system failed to engage the party faithful ? Consider that the November election will bring more than 2,000,000 voters to select the next governor, should it be based on the wishes of a small pool of voters that was whittled down from less than 35,000 caucus participants ? Mark Dayton, Matt Entenza and Susan Gaertner have already indicated that they will pursue a primary campaign. I don’t automatically think they should do that without first going through the State Convention process, but if any candidate can carry a significant level of support to the convention, they should consider having their name on the primary ballot. The candidate must also be honest with himself/herself … if the party faithful are not impressed, give it up. The end result should be that the party puts out a candidate that will reflect the positions of the political party but also appeal to the independent voters that will ultimately decide this election.

Thus far, the MN-GOP and DFL candidates have not excited the public. Campaign rhetoric may excite the party faithful, it will not impress the independent voters. Mike Parry got away with his “15% statewide cut” as election theme, but once elected he asked for time “to get his feet wet”. The next governor will not have that time.
I am heartened by a recent Mankato Free Press editorial challenging the candidates to “get real” on offering budget solutions.
On a pre-caucus MPR radio forum, candidates were asked about what issues might be common ground with the other party. The DFL candidates were able to point to some common interests while except for one MN-GOP candidate, they offered nothing.
The opening this time could be for the Independence Party. Each party should be wary of a Tom Horner IP campaign … I could be wrong, but having listened to him for years, I think he will assume the mantra of addressing Minnesota’s neglected long-term budget problems and offer voters someone who will be forced to work with both parties.

 

Great strategy on Team Emmer's part: hide the terrible cash on hand numbers until too late so no one knows when they go into vote. Certainly, if people knew that their local state representative has more cash on hand than a state-wide candidate for Governor, they'd consider that gubernatorial candidacy a joke.
 

Dave, you were the only blogger to pick this one right when you put Rybak at the head of your power rankings this month (and last month). He won in Duluth, Lakeville, Edina, and McLeod County. Last time I checked, that's a pretty wide geographical cross-section, and it really doesn't seem like his "popularity was overstated".

Also, turnout was higher in the metro area, but will continue to be higher in metro area, because that's where the majority of people in Minnesota live. It's definitely not a problem for the Dems to have a candidate that can rack up huge margins in the cities and suburbs.
 

Your point is well taken, Dyna. However, outstate strength isn't concentrated and DFL delegate rules give more strength to areas that voted heavier for DFL candidates. I have had reservations about Rybak's outstate appeal, but he keeps surprising me there. In my district (37 -Apple Valley Burnsville and Rosemount) Rybak got 69 votes to Kellihers 49 with everyone else getting teens or single digits. Ours is an outer ring suburban area and Rybak showed surprising strength. Outstaters don't have a candidate to coalesce around -- I considered Rochester a Dayton area. Their votes will be split all over the board. To me, Rybak has to be considered the frontrunner for now.
 

Dave, the straw poll numbers do not translate directly into delegates. In RT's base in SD62 1042 DFLers voted and will fight for 28 state convention delegate seats at the district convention. In Marshall County only 11 DFLers voted, but they get 3 delegate seats at the state convention. So a vote in Marshall County is worth 10 times as many convention delegates as a vote from RT's turf in SD62.
 

The straw poll is our first report back from politically-active voters unfiltered by an interest organization or polling firm. It's interesting that John Marty does so well in these circumstances. In my opinion, he is the candidate most willing to propose specific solutions to social problems, like health care. This could be the year of the no-nonsense, get-it-done politician.

Joel Clemmer
 

Except that the people who did turn out last night are the only ones who can move on to the conventions...so, as far as endorsement is concerned, these numbers are the ones to work with. The main issue is where did the large number of undecideds come from.
 

You have to consider where the votes are coming from- there was decent turn out in Minneapolis and weak turnout outstate. That means RT's popularity was overstated and the candidates with an outstate following are stronger than the vote totals suggest.