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Progressive Politics in Minnesota, the Nation, and the World

Fearful Forecast

Posted: 11/05/12 13:16, Edited: 04/24/13 15:28

by Dave Mindeman

I'm a lousy prognisticator but I can't resist a few quick predictions.

1) Obama wins both electoral college and popular vote. 309 electoral votes. Let's just say the popular vote will be close.

2) Klobuchar will crack 60%.

3) Nolan wins...rest will stay the same. 5-3 Dem in House.

4) MN Legislature: Senate turns Democrat - 36-31. House could go either way, but think it will end up Democrat also: 68-66.

5) US Senate - Democrats hold 52-48. US House - Stays GOP, but Dems gain 7 seats.

6) Constitutional amendments - Marriage fails. Voter ID barely passes.

7) Upset: Shelley Berkely wins Senate seat in Nevada.

8) Dark horse possibility: Graves beats Bachmann

One thing for sure...it will all end tomorrow (or a close proximity to tomorrow).
comments (1) permalink
11/05/12 22:35

Regarding Minnesota, the key is the turnout ... if it is below 3 million, both Amendments are approved ... if there is a lot of same-day registrations (or re-registration as it appears that there have been major reductions ... for example Hennepin County dropped over 44,000 from the number of voters in 2008 to what is eligible today ... the same thing in Ramsey down 38,000) then they both lose ... remember that only affirmative votes count in the tally.

I doubt that Obama will win the popular count as the SuperStorm and the lack of key races in NYC and NJ will keep the numbers lower than otherwise but that won't matter as the Electoral College is what matters.
The Electoral College projection is 277 Romney and 261 Obama ... the pandering to the military will help him win VA, NC and FL ... and the Religious Right will give him IA and WI ... while voters prejudicial attitudes will give him OH and CO.

That might sound difficult to believe but consider your forecast that the Dems will only pick-up 7 seats in the House means that people like Steve King will defeat Christie Vilsak (see Iowa) ... and the Senate is barely moving and assuming that Berkley beats Heller that means a Dem seat must lose to a Republican challenger ... and that would be in Wisconsin where Tammy Baldwin may be too extreme for the KochBrothers and religious voters.

Graves beating Bachmann means that there would have to be a lot of ticket-splitting ... how many Republicans will vote for Romney believing the recent hyped-up poll that MN is in play, then switch to Klobuchar ... and then stay there for Graves ... the Strib poll and the Marriage Amendment saved Bachmann.

Sad to see the assessment that John Kline will be going back to agree to whatever Ryan tells him to do.


 

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