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The Independence Party Might Get That 5% Yet!

Category: Independence Party
Posted: 10/08/14 18:44, Edited: 10/08/14 18:46

by Dave Mindeman

I think there is a chance that the Independence Party might get saved after all. There is an increasing possibility that Hannah Nicollet may, indeed, get that 5% for the Independence Party that can keep them afloat.

And I say that, not because I think Hannah Nicollet has been a great candidate- she hasn't....but its more about Jeff Johnson being a lackluster one.

Johnson continues to use MNSure as a line of attack, when a much more effective idea would have been how to improve MNSure. He lags way behind in money....obviously not convincing any of the big donors that he is a good investment. He has decent commercials - but they don't really say anything. Is there such a thing as a "nice" negative commercial?

Dayton has run a solid incumbent type campaign....and he has good economic data to support him. He is on a path to winning. Which puts Johnson in an awkward situation. He has a party with high negatives....unable to finance unless it comes from an outside group....and a message that is just not resonating. He is in a conundrum with independent voters.

All of that gives Hannah Nicollet that chance. Fortunately for her, the debates that are happening are including her. That's a big deal for a candidate with no money, awkward interviews, and a minimalist message. But considering that both parties have high negatives and the IP has virtually no image, they could get their 5% by default.

I think there is a good chance that 1 in 20 voters will look at the ballot and say - Hannah Nicollet? Who's she? Oh well, I don't like the other guys so she gets my X.

There you go. 5% and party saved.
comments (2) permalink
10/09/14 22:18
Have you looked at the recent KSTP Survey USA poll data ?

It shows Hannah Nicollet getting 4% with her strongest region Western Minnesota.

You could be right that with Johnson fading, that the IP could get close but if Las Vegas is taking bets, I would bet against it.
 
10/09/14 00:57
Don't forget about Chris Holbrook of the Libertarian Party who are pretty mad about Tom Horner endorsing Jeff Johnson.
No doubt the TEA Party folks will how to make a statement and they may go with the Libertarian rather than the IP.

And this could play out in MN-02 as you know many TEA Party supporters do not think that John Kline is one of them ... they may look at the ballot and see that they can send Kline under the Boehner bus by sending a message with a vote for IP's Paula Overby.
 

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