Posted: 04/21/14 01:56
by Dave Mindeman
We have about 6 weeks before the state conventions happen...which means a lot of the action for the GOP governor and Senate candidates will be under the radar, calling and meeting with delegates.
But where do things stand? Well, it is always fun to speculate, so let's do that, shall we? Race for Governor....
#6 - Rob Farnsworth - Not moving. Barely worth mentioning.
#5 - Sen. Dave Thompson - Thompson has been a disappointment so far. He hasn't raised much money and hasn't even been particularly great with the one-liners that we expected from him. He is abiding by the endorsement, but is far from a lock on that either. He might be competitive there if he can survive the first round, but he hasn't created any "aura of invincibility" either.
#4 - Rep. Kurt Zellers - His fundraising has actually been good and he indicates that he will go to the primary if not endorsed. He can probably hang in there for a primary campaign, but has a lot of baggage to attack. So he will probably fade quickly. Career will soon be over.
#3 - Commissioner Jeff Johnson - Johnson is calling in a career's worth of political chips. He has a lot of delegate friends and that should make him competitive for the endorsement - which he says he will be abiding by. He has some deep pocket donors that have kept him respectable in fundraising. However he isn't creating much buzz in the field.
#2 - Scott Honour - Honour is the big fundraiser with deep pockets. He is buying his way into the field. A novice politically, he, in theory, is building an organization for a full primary run. It better be a good organization because he must be spending an awful lot of cash to make it happen. His burn rate is crazy and he lags the field in cash on hand. Must be a payoff there somewhere, so we will put him at a "weak" two.
#1 - Marty Seifert - Seifert came in late but has been building momentum from the get go. He is coy about the endorsement...allowing an opening to head to the primary if not endorsed. Still, he may be the frontrunner in both aspects. He does well in straw polls - has a lot of outstate support. And his fundraising has been pretty darn good - with a solid amount of cash on hand. He looks like the guy to beat (in this field at least) at the moment.
OK, there's the first ratings for GOP governor. I realize I am not a GOP insider, but that also makes me a pretty unbiased observer, right?
More on the GOP Senate later....