Posted: 10/24/16 00:34
by Dave Mindeman
The KSTP poll for the 8th District has Stewart Mills III in the lead 45-41. And with Trump up double digits over Clinton in that area.
The 8th District has had plenty of rumblings about the Democrats. And apparently they would like to see Trump tearing up those trade deals.
But be careful what you wish for.
Let's take Trump first. There is no indication that Trump has any real understanding of trade policy. I contend that he thinks a trade deficit with another country is a monetized deficit. He thinks that a $500 billion trade deficit with China means they got that much money from us. I believe that is what he really thinks. I think that is his premise for Mexico "paying for the wall" - he's going to fix the trade deficit with Mexico and get all that "money" back. Do you really want this guy in charge of trade policy?
And although the 8th District is upset about cheap Chinese steel imports (and by the way, Trump used Chinese steel for his casinos)....there is the flip side of this, in that the 8th District does need a healthy export economy. That means we need to get some kind of trade mechanism in place and Democrats have promised to protect labor in those negotiations.
And really, do you honestly think Trump really cares about your jobs up there? He wants to go back to raping the land for minerals, and coal, and oil. Unrestricted without regulations. What would that do to the 8th District tourism industry?
And then there is Mills. Stewart is thinking he can ride that Trump train into Congress, but can you trust him as well? Mills says that he is now against the TPP and wants "fair" trade instead of free trade. This has required a full reversal on his past trade thoughts. After all, his company, Fleet Farm, needs an unencumbered ability to export. And in the past , he has embraced the establishment Republican "free trade" orthodoxy. Do you really trust him to not go back to his old ways once he establishes himself with Paul Ryan and the rest?
It is one thing to compare Trump to Clinton on trade. It is another, when comparing Mills to Rick Nolan. Nolan has established his negative view on the TPP - and he has a record of opposing deals that do not protect American workers. He is already in line with 8th District views on mining and environment. In this political climate, do you really want to be represented by a neophyte and give away a proven track record?
In the real potential event of a Clinton presidency, even Trump supporters should think twice about firing Rick Nolan. You know where he stands. You know that if President Clinton begins to waver on trade that Nolan will have the ear of the President. And you also have in Nolan, a person recognized as one the THE most effective members of Congress.
In the 8th, even if you prefer Trump - Nolan's your guy.