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Another DFL Senate Race Scenario

Category: Mike Ciresi
Posted: 05/30/08 04:10

by Dave Mindeman

I find it more than a little intrigueing that the Star Tribune has a prominent article about "turmoil" regarding Franken's Playboy article. That piece, coupled with an MPR story about the same issue makes for interesting political timing. We have about a week to go to the DFL convention.

The prominent figure in all this is Rep. Betty McCollum, which, if one were going to speculate, gives us this scenario:

McCollum was an early backer of Mike Ciresi for the Senate bid. But Ciresi dropped out...curiously just after loaning his campaign $2 million. The attacks on Franken by the Republican party have escalated with the Democrats keeping a low profile. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer has stayed out of the mess, focusing on issues, but has made some headway in the delegate hunt. (Another interesting note -- there is virtually no mention of JNP by McCollum in any of her interviews)

Going into the convention, Al Franken is still the odds on favorite but what if he doesn't get to 60% on the first ballot? That will probably change the game. With a little McCollum arm twisting and lots of behind the scenes pushing, there could be a move towards no endorsement. JNP supporters may not have enough to push over the top themselves, but a no endorsement opens up a game for the primary.

Which brings us back to Ciresi. He can restart his campaign, still holding his cash, and make it look like the party is asking him to get back into the race.... and off we go into a divisive and expensive September primary campaign.

The risk for Ciresi is that JNP could gather some serious momentum if Franken's effort stalls, and carry him to a surprise endorsement. But, I would guess that Ciresi and McCollum would be willing to take that risk....it is their only real chance to get back into the fray.

Meanwhile, Norm Coleman gets more use out of his dentally enhanced smile.
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Mike Ciresi -- Wrong Approach

Category: Mike Ciresi
Posted: 03/11/08 04:45, Edited: 03/11/08 05:00

by Dave Mindeman

Mike Ciresi never quite got it. In two different Senate runs, he made the same mistake. He assumed that running with general election campaign themes, from the beginning, can also get you the endorsement or support of the party base. It just doesn't mix.

Party activists are a different animal. They demand a certain passion and adherence to principle that makes candidates walk a fine line through an election process.

Al Franken and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer figured that system out.

Franken began his efforts long ago at the party bean feeds and legislative candidate fundraisers. He raised the early money and took his case directly to the people that knocked on the doors and made all the calls. And they responded.

Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer knew that his issues were the party base's issues. He doesn't have the money but he has the heart....and party activists reward heart, even when they are unsure if the candidate can make a case for a November win. In the Democratic Party, they are always looking for the next Paul Wellstone. And for a lot of people, that resemblance registers in Pallmeyer.

But Mike Ciresi's very nature is a pragmatic one. It has made him successful and is at the heart of his persuasion ability. But if pragmatism was the Ciresi plan, then he should have opted to go directly to a primary campaign. Pragmatism and Activisim don't mix very well in an endorsement process.

I suspect Ciresi believed that he could convince people that this approach was the best way to win this year. Make it a slow and methodical campaign....grind it out, keeping the focus on Norm Coleman. But the endorsement process is anything but a normal analyitcal mechanism. It is more like herding cats.

Ciresi kept expecting that methodical argument to work. But that didn't happen with a party base that is tired of cautious, resistant to compromise, and looking for down right angry passion.

Mike Ciresi is a good man and a good candidate.....but just not the right type of candidate to capture a Democratic endorsement. Not in a year like this.
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Mike Ciresi Bows Out

Category: Mike Ciresi
Posted: 03/10/08 18:17

by Dave Mindeman

Mike Ciresi is leaving the Senate race. The letter states:

I am announcing today my withdrawal from the contest for the DFL endorsement and the conclusion of my candidacy for the U.S. Senate. In my judgment, continuing the endorsement race would only lead to an unnecessary floor fight. It is time to step aside.

Which leaves that mysterious $2 million loan to the campaign. Was it just a smoke screen to gauge reactions? Or was it a genuine attempt to begin a persuasion campaign for delegates? His statement would seem to rule out a primary bid....

As we return to private life, I will continue my efforts, as I have my entire life, to work with others in contributing to the common good of our state and nation.

A return to private life would seem to mean just that...he is leaving the political scene.

He made no endorsement of Franken or Nelson-Pallmeyer, so the convention will still have a decision to make. Pallmeyer has been doing reasonably well in delegates.... his objective right now will be to keep Franken from a first ballot endorsement.

The field is cleared for a direct comparison...on to Rochester.


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