Posted: 10/08/14 18:44, Edited: 10/08/14 18:46
by Dave Mindeman
I think there is a chance that the Independence Party might get saved after all. There is an increasing possibility that Hannah Nicollet may, indeed, get that 5% for the Independence Party that can keep them afloat.
And I say that, not because I think Hannah Nicollet has been a great candidate- she hasn't....but its more about Jeff Johnson being a lackluster one.
Johnson continues to use MNSure as a line of attack, when a much more effective idea would have been how to improve MNSure. He lags way behind in money....obviously not convincing any of the big donors that he is a good investment. He has decent commercials - but they don't really say anything. Is there such a thing as a "nice" negative commercial?
Dayton has run a solid incumbent type campaign....and he has good economic data to support him. He is on a path to winning. Which puts Johnson in an awkward situation. He has a party with high negatives....unable to finance unless it comes from an outside group....and a message that is just not resonating. He is in a conundrum with independent voters.
All of that gives Hannah Nicollet that chance. Fortunately for her, the debates that are happening are including her. That's a big deal for a candidate with no money, awkward interviews, and a minimalist message. But considering that both parties have high negatives and the IP has virtually no image, they could get their 5% by default.
I think there is a good chance that 1 in 20 voters will look at the ballot and say - Hannah Nicollet? Who's she? Oh well, I don't like the other guys so she gets my X.
There you go. 5% and party saved.