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Progressive Politics in Minnesota, the Nation, and the World

Future Predictions

Category: Donald Trump
Posted: 12/01/16 18:33

by Dave Mindeman

After watching Trump as President-elect and mulling over his cabinet picks, here is a list of the things that will happen in the next 4 years.

1. There will be a nuclear detonation somewhere on the planet.

2. Vladimir Putin will expand Russian territory.

3. The US will have an economic recession.

4. Trump will have a nuclear confrontation with North Korea.

5. Medicare will be saved by US Senate...barely.

6. The Trump-Ryan relationship will sour and become a GOP problem.

7. In two years there will be rumblings of impeachment for Trump.

8. Cory Booker will rise to major Dem Prez contender.

9. The national debt will rise under Trump.

10. Job losses and rising unemployment will begin in 12 months.

11. Trump's investment in infrastructure will be scaled way back.

12. National open carry law will be introduced.

13. Supreme Court will swing back to solid conservative.

14. Roe v Wade will be on the docket late in Trump term.

15. Assad will win Syrian war as Trump pulls out entirely.

16. Tensions between Israel and Iran will escalate.

17. Pakistan and India will go to the brink of nuclear war.

18. At least 15 million Americans will go back to being uninsured.

19. Out of pocket expenses for health care will go up at least 50%.

20. The 1% will get another big tax cut.

There is the list.

Have a wonderful, optimistic day.

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"Visually Important"

Category: Donald Trump
Posted: 12/01/16 17:37

by Dave Mindeman

Trump was in full photo op mode today with his Carrier "deal". He took full credit for saving about 1100 jobs in Indiana. Although if you look deeper, it is hardly a new method of negotiation.

First, Carrier nets $7 million in tax incentives via Mike Pence as Governor of Indiana. Nothing new about that kind of incentive packaging but Pence could have done that long ago. But it was the addition of the fact that United Technologies (the parent company of Carrier) has a number of lucrative government contracts it would need to protect. So, in the end, UT was looking to curry favor with a new administration that they do not yet know.

So, maybe Trump can take a little credit for the potential future threat. But the things he has said about "consequences" for companies that leave the US was not part of this equation. In fact, UT simply gets free money to pay for their extra costs to stay in the US.

The Trump "consequences" about slapping a tax on shipments coming back into the US is ludicrous as well. He can't just place a targeted tax on one company's products. If he taxes Carrier, he taxes all air conditioner companies. And since the majority of these manufacturers build outside the US, all Trump would be doing is raising consumer prices for American buyers.

But Secondly, there is a broader problem. Does Trump plan to tackle this problem on some kind of case by case basis? If so, then what does any company have to lose by simply announcing moving jobs out of the country? They come to the immediate attention of the President and can begin to negotiate incentives directly with the head of the US government.

Sure, Trump can tell corporations that he will lower their taxes. He has talked of a corporate tax reduction from 35% to 15%. But the reality is that few corporations pay that in terms of real tax. Carrier pays a real tax rate of only 9%. What weight can that carry?

So here we are. This is the Trump plan? Seriously?

And by the way, isn't this another Republican "principle" being abandoned? Wasn't it Paul Ryan who said that on principle, government cannot directly interfere with private business management...it is not the government's job to pick winners and losers...or to interfere with corporate competition. Yet, there is Ryan, praising Trump for violating that very tenet.

We are gradually seeing the unraveling of Republican conservative principles as the GOP moves to becoming the Trump Party. Hey, if they are OK with that, fine. But don't espouse these ideas as "principles" if they are going to be dumped at the first need to pander to Trump.

Donald Trump referenced an interesting phrase when he was talking about how he would handle his "conflict of interest" problems. He didn't say he would divest his holdings as the Government Ethics office indicates as the only way to avoid the problem. No, he said that it was "visually important" that these conflicts of interest didn't happen.

Not in the actual sense. But avoiding the visual proof. That is the nutshell of how Trump operates. It is all an illusion based in his imagination.

I guess we had better get used to more of the same.
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